Question : What could be more exciting than talking about a graph? Answer : It doesn’t matter, because we’re talking about a graph either way …specifically, this graph. This article and video are for investors that are excited by the recent S&P 500 US Stock returns over the past few years. Today we’re sharing some thoughts on a graph and how it relates to the S&P 500 as an investment, and learning from history's patterns.   What you see before is a plain graph right? Wrong. This is a fascinating graph, if you look closely. You don’t have to squint, just look for some patterns and concepts. We have here three different indices: the S&P 500 (which is a big chunk of the US share market), The MSCI World Ex USA, which means 22 other developed countries’ share markets, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which is another 21 developing countries (also known as Emerging Markets or “EMs”). The graph shows each index and its trailing 10-year returns, separated by five year intervals. So the first bars on the left show 1984, which means it’s taking the returns of those indices for the previous 10 years, starting from January 1975 through to December 1984. The next bars do the same, it’s just five years later. Now here’s where things get exciting: there are nine periods shown on the graph from 1983 – 2023, but if you look at the S&P 500, which is the dark blue bar, had the highest returns in four of those periods. Four divided by nine is 44% (4/9=.44). That means that less than half the time the S&P outperformed other diversified share markets. So if you were back in the 1980s and deciding which index to invest in, the S&P 500 would not have been the best option, more than it would have. That's not great.   Emerging Markets Many investors don’t like the returns from Emerging Markets have offered, and that’s understandable because for the past 10-15 years, they haven’t been very good. But if you look further back, Emerging Markets were phenomenal during and after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Part of the reason for that is because the S&P 500 did so poorly, by comparison.   The S&P 500 (as an investment option) Last time the S&P 500 outperformed these other 2 indices was in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and for those that remember, that’s when the Tech Bubble burst. What came five years later were abysmal returns (because the returns on the graph above show the historical averages with 10-year intervals, not just one-year intervals). What was once a great investment, became a … not so great investment. Cycles Change It’s scary to think that back in 1999 and 2004, the US outperformed other developed and emerging countries’ share markets, by less than what they have done recently.  Let me explain, markets go through cycles, which means there’s up periods when everyone is happy, and after the up periods are down periods, where good returns were a distant memory. In statistics this is called Regression to the Mean. What it means is that things have a tendency to go back and do what the average over time. In other words, history often repeats itself. Imagine you and your friends are flipping coins, you flip a coin 10,000 times. There might be some streaks when you flip heads 10 times in a row, but out of the total 10,000 the odds are that all the coin flips will still come out to something like 50/50, or close to it. This is how markets often behave, and because the S&P has done well more recently (since 2009), it might not do as well in the near future.  Likewise, because other developed and emerging markets haven’t done as well recently, they might be more attractive in the near term. The more unusual a market’s returns are, either up or down, the more likely it is to go swing back the opposite direction, to get back to the average. This is called a correction if markets swing downwards or if it’s big enough, a bear market, when stock markets plummet.   Let's Talk About the S&P 500 (Finally) Basically the S&P 500 looks so good right now because it’s gotten more expensive. The price has gone up so every investor is paying more money to buy the same companies as before. You can measure how expensive a share market is in numerous ways, but some common ratios are Price to Earnings or Price to Book. This image shows that the historical Price to Earnings ratio for the S&P 500 has been about 22, which means that if you buy all the companies in the S&P 500, and nothing else changed, it would take 22 years to get your money back from the investment through each companies annual earnings.  You can see that, more recently, the number is 40x price to earnings. Put another way, if you invest in the S&P 500 right now (as of late 2024), you are roughly paying twice as much as the historical average, which is not a good sign for the future returns.   Since the year 1970 through to year end 2023, several countries have had better performing share markets than the US and S&P 500, including Denmark (13.53% per year), Hong Kong (12.62% per year), Sweden (12.45% per year)) the Netherlands (11.97% per year) and Switzerland (11.05% per year), while the S&P 500 has done 10.95% per year. However, if we look over the last 10 years (when the S&P has gone way up), Hong Kong and Sweden haven’t done so well. Sweden’s trailing 10 year returns are 5.23% per year while Hong Kong's are a miserly 2.03% per year. So if you like the idea of investing in countries with strong share markets like Sweden and Hong Kong, remember that the last 50 years isn't the same as the last 10 where they've had poor performance. That can and does happen in just about every market, so it's not unique to Sweden or Hong Kong.   In fact, some 'authorities' will attribute the S&P 500's performance to “ US Exceptionalism ” ask yourself this question: If the S&P 500 hadn’t performed so well since 2009, would you still want to invest in it? If the answer is yes, then go right ahead. But if the answer is no, and you think it’s stupid to invest in a country that’s had poor performance (such as Hong Kong or Sweden), then you are Chasing Returns , and that’s something we’ve mentioned before (see link above). Short version is, chasing returns is not a good investment strategy.     Let's Wrap This Up While this might sound confusing and leave you wondering, so "what do I do now" – here are some takeaways: Don’t look at which investment markets have done well and put your money into yesterday’s superstars. You’d be better off doing the opposite by picking previous losers. The best strategy is invest in all of them, by picking a global index that tracks all the countries in the world. If you are investing more of your money into the S&P 500, just be aware that there have been numerous occasions when the S&P was in a similar position as today (where it was expensive) and it went on to lose value (sometimes for more than 10 years). Then comes the hardest part of all. Don’t touch it. Let your investments ride. You’ll be tempted to move them every time you look, because the FOMO parts of your brain will ask if you can do better. In theory you could, but in reality, the data are clear that switching investments based on recent performance is a bad idea. This means if you’re committing to an investment strategy, commit to it. Don’t ‘try it out’ for a couple of years and then switch. Continuing to switch investments every so often will hurt your portfolio, leave you with less wealth, less time from researching everything and increase your stress.   Chase your dream, not returns. - Cam Irvine   Our goal, here at Irvine Wenborn is to help people live better lives by providing financial education, insight and perspective. So if you enjoyed this, feel free to reach out or share it with someone that you think would find it interesting or useful. You can find us at our here, socials, YouTube, and 'out there'. Citations and Sources: DFA Returns Web MSCI Inc: https://www.msci.com/our-solutions/indexes/acwi Wikipedia:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism   Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp500.asp Visual Capitalist: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/complete-breakdown-of-sp-500-companies/#google_vignette

This article are some of the insights that Chip Conley gleaned, regarding getting older. He's a New York Times best-selling author and upon many years of reflection, he has acquired some wisdom about what people often 'think' it means to get older vs what it has become for him. So here are 5 ways where getting older is also getting better: 1. Feel relief that your body no longer defines you Our obsession with getting older is so focused on the physical, on how it looks, that we don’t prepare for what it feels like to experience midlife. Aging is a privilege, a gift of time. Yet so many of us focus our middle-age conversations on what we have lost: we share “organ recitals” of what body parts no longer work as they used to. Unlike a tree whose age is defined by its internal rings, we age in public, cursed or blessed with our external wrinkles. How we feel about our longevity is on display, not only in our attempts at concealment but in how we embrace or resist our additional years. For me, I felt comfortable in my own skin just as it started to sag. It's such a relief to no longer be defined by your brawn or beauty. As we age, we realize that this rental vehicle we were issued at birth will have its inevitable dings and chipped paint, but what really matters as our body depreciates isn’t what it looks like on the outside but how it feels on the inside. Yes, we need to maintain this vehicle, but it becomes less about short-term vanity and more about long-term maintenance. And that gives us so much more time to invest in the other important playing fields beyond the physical: the emotional, the relational, the mental, the vocational, and the spiritual. 2. Invest in your social well-being It’s revealing that the word “illness” starts with an “i,” while “well-being” starts with “we.” What if we look at our well-being as a shared responsibility, striving for social, not just personal, well-being? In midlife, we’ve often starved ourselves of friendships because we’ve been so busy with the spinning plates of being in the “time sandwich” with a proliferation of professional and personal obligations. Social science research is conclusive that the most common variable for those living happy, healthy lives into their eighties and beyond is how invested they were in social relations in midlife. “The shorter life we have ahead of us, the more we prioritize our relationships in the moment.” Friends aren’t a “nice-to-have.” They’re a “need-to-have.” Our friends, family, and community are our “emotional insurance.” The shorter life we have ahead of us, the more we prioritize our relationships in the moment. This is part of the reason that the U-curve of Happiness research shows that life begins at 50 as we get happier with each decade after bottoming out in our late 40s. As the Velveteen Rabbit suggests, “Generally, by the time you are Real, most of your hair has been loved off.” One of my saving graces of midlife is just how authentic my relationships have become. I no longer show off to others. I show up for others. 3. It's OK to marvel at your wisdom Knowledge is in your smartphone. Wisdom is in your gut. Our painful life lessons are the raw material for our future wisdom. By midlife, we’re experts in the school of life and are “first-class noticers” of our patterns. We’re also more adept at moving from the left to the right brain such that we can be logical and lyrical in the same sentence. This crystallized intelligence, popularized in Arthur Brooks’ book From Strength to Strength , is valuable because, in a world in which we’re awash in knowledge, we’re desperately in need of the distilled value of wisdom. Wisdom is a social good. It’s meant to be shared as a wise person makes everyone around them better. In your 50s, even if you work with people half your age, you still have relevance, especially as a “motivational listener.” Knowledge speaks, and wisdom listens. You can also look forward to what Erik Erikson calls “generativity,” the desire to positively impact younger people in ways that will survive me. 4. Notice when you have more time affluence. Midlife is when we outgrow our pursuit of happiness and start our practice of joy. If we joyously step off the treadmill and ruthlessly edit our lives, we create the space to become a beginner again. Curiosity and an openness to new experiences are two variables correlated with happiness later in life, so why not create the spaciousness to experience a second adulthood? Midlife offers the opportunity to move from human doing to human being. “In midlife, we should always be a beginner at something.” Our experience of time changes as we age. After all, a year represents 10 percent of a 10-year-old’s life but just 2 percent of a 50-year-old’s life. Researchers explain that we gauge time by memorable events. The more such events, the slower time seems to pass, but because we often have fewer new things to remember as we age, life seems to accelerate. Some people like Chip learned how to surf and speak Spanish at 57 because he asked himself the following questions, “What do I know or have I done now that I wish I’d learned or did ten years ago? More importantly, 10 years from now, what will I regret if I don’t learn it or do it now?” In midlife, we should always be a beginner at something. Experiencing new “firsts” in our lives stretches time. 5. Feel as if you are growing whole We’re growing old, but we’re also growing whole. In the first half of our lives, our “selves” are compartmentalized: the person we are at work is often different from the person we are with our spouse and kids. By midlife, we start to re-member ourselves so that we feel integrated, not scattered. You start to feel a quiet comfort in yourself and in your connection with something bigger than you. As Modern Elder Academy faculty member Richard Rohr suggests, “We live wholeness when we ‘re-member’ our story and, through it, experience a deeper sense of being part of a greater whole.” In our wholeness, we find a holiness, a stirring inside that draws us to meaning and spirit. Getting older means you get better, but only if you recognize it One of the beauties of creating the world’s first midlife wisdom school, MEA, is witnessing people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s becoming whole in the presence of others becoming whole as well. Maybe the midlife “crisis” language should be replaced with a “chrysalis,” such that midlife is a time when we transform from a caterpillar into a butterfly. You may think you’re shattered in midlife, but this is just because life is offering you (with the help of your family and friends) the opportunity to feel the sense of accomplishment to put yourself back together again, piece by piece. Rest assured, you’re not the only one doing this. References: Chip Conley

It’s easy to make a million dollars... ... If you are patient. It’s hard to make a million dollars if you’re a human though, because there’s always “a new thing” that makes it really difficult to be, well… patient. There’s always something new that we want or need to buy and we can tell ourselves, “I’ll start saving in the future”… but what about when the future arrives?   If a person saves $500 per month and gets a 7.5% return for 40 years, they will end up with a little over $1.5m (it’s $1,511,911 to be precise). That could mean someone saves from the age of 19 – 58 or it could be from age 31 – 70, it really doesn’t matter. The problem is, humans don’t tend to think quite like that because life happens. Let’s like at an example of a typical person, called Bob. Bob wants to save some of his money for the future. It’s not clear what, but he knows that saving is important because his parents always saved and everyone else seems to do it. Bob is 23 years old and makes good enough money that he can save $1,000 per month. After 8 years of investing his savings in an evidence-based portfolio, Bob has just under $131,000. That’s pretty good. Bob is on track, right? Well, it depends on the choices Bob makes in the future, because it’s not over. After 8 years, Bob is 31 years old and thinks “Maybe I want to buy a house…” And you know what? That’s just what Bob does. He buys a property. But in order to have enough deposit, Bob has to withdraw all his investment savings, so he goes back to $0, and then starts over. It doesn’t seem like a big deal, because Bob tells himself that he’s a good saver and and he’ll get pay rises so he can save even more in the future. It won’t be hard to make it up. Maybe that’s all true (maybe it’s not), but let’s see what that 8-year difference makes in Bob’s future. If Bob kept saving all the way until age 65, without ever withdrawing for his deposit, he’d have a tad over $3.5M ( $3,537,347 ). Instead, Bob withdrew at 31 and started over, so he’ll still be ok because he can save and he knows he’ll earn more. Afterall, how much is he missing out on from those 8 years? Maybe a little. Well… maybe a lot more than a little. Bob’s final balance of saving from 31-65 will be $1,872,939, which is $1,664,407 less , compared to saving from age 23-65.   Basically, Bob will have half as much money in retirement for withdrawing his early years of saving. That's how taking early withdrawals hurts your future and this is just one quick example, that shows why it’s important to let your wealth compound, uninterrupted for as long as you possibly can. A little withdrawal can have a big effect. Of course buying a house is a big decision and most people that can, choose to do it at some point, but just be aware that using your savings and wealth for one thing can come at the expense of something else (such as your future, having security or choices, being financially independent sooner, travel, etc). If you’re wondering what a practical solution it, it’s quite simple. Nothing. All you have to do is nothing. Don’t withdraw. Set aside some money and savings that can be used for things through your life, but make sure you keep some buckets of money that are protected and only used for the long-term stuff. If you never touch the long-term buckets of money, then they grow more than you can imagine because the human brain thinks about things in straight lines. We can do the math for 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8. Human brains don’t naturally calculate compounding, so it’s hard to quickly answer what is 8 x 8 x 8 x 8 x 8. Just remember, dollars that are used today for something, are dollars that you can’t use later for anything. In other words: “You get the chicken by hatching the egg, not by smashing it” – Arnold Glasglow

Having good finances is one way to feel better, but there's more than just that, and a good financial adviser should recognize other ways to look after their clients and increase their well-being Optimism, self-confidence, gratitude, hope, compassion, purpose, empathy—these are all qualities that anyone can own. You just have to learn how. And doing so will change your life. This is called the "S.T.A.G.E.R." framework and it helps you build six key skills: Savor, Thank, Aspire, Give, Empathize, and Revive. Savor Savoring is a quick and easy way to boost optimism and reduce stress and negative emotions. It's the practice of being mindful and noticing the good stuff around you, taking the extra time to prolong and intensify your enjoyment of the moment, making a pleasurable experience last for as long as possible. So whether it's preparing a meal, pausing to admire the sunset, or telling a friend your good news—the idea is to linger, take it in, and enjoy the experience. Eventually it'll become a habit—one you'll never want to break. Research by Dr. Fred Bryant, a professor at Loyola University Chicago who coined the term “savoring,” shows that those who regularly and frequently savor are happier, more optimistic and more satisfied with life. Bryant describes savoring as three-fold, meaning we can savor the past (by reminiscing), savor the future (through positive anticipation) or savor the present (by practicing mindfulness). There are many savoring techniques—and you may find that you gravitate towards some, but not others. Researchers Bryant and Veroff have proposed a number of ways to do this, including savoring with other people, concentrating on the meaning of an activity, incorporating humor, and writing about their experience. These are ways increase your well-being & wellness Give Everything about giving is a no-brainer. Obviously, when you give someone something, you make them happier. But what you might not know is that the giver—not the receiver— reaps even more benefits . Numerous studies show that being kind not only makes us feel less stressed, isolated and angry, but it makes us feel considerably happier, more connected with the world, and more open to new experiences. In one famous study , Dr. Sonja Lyubomirsky asked students to commit five random acts of kindness each week for six weeks. Whereas the control group experienced a reduction in well‑being, those who engaged in acts of kindness showed a 42% increase in happiness. We're happier when we spend money on other people  than when we spend money on ourselves. And another study  found that simply reflecting on nice things we've done for other people can lift our mood. Dr. Stephen Post, a bioethicist at Case Western Reserve University and founder of the Institute for Research on Unlimited Love, is a pioneer in the study of altruism and compassion. His research  shows that when we give of ourselves, everything from life satisfaction to self-realization and physical health is significantly affected. Mortality is delayed. Depression is reduced. Well-being and good fortune are increased. Thank The simple act of identifying and then appreciating the things people do for us is a modern-day wonder drug . It fills us with optimism and self-confidence, knowing that others are there for us. It dampens our desires for “more” of everything—and it deepens our relationships with loved ones. And when we express our gratitude to someone, we get kindness and gratitude in return. In studies led by Dr. Martin Seligman, people have written gratitude letters to someone they've never properly thanked, and seen immediate increases in happiness and decreases in depressive symptoms. Robert Emmons, Professor of Psychology at the University of California, Davis, is a leading researcher in the field of gratitude and author of Thanks: How the New Science of Gratitude Can Make You Happier . He believes everyone should try practicing gratitude because the benefits are so powerful : “First, the practice of gratitude can increase happiness levels by around 25%. Second, this is not hard to achieve. A few hours writing a gratitude journal over 3 weeks can create an effect that lasts 6 months if not more. Third, cultivating gratitude brings other health effects, such as longer and better quality sleep time.” Aspire Feeling hopeful, having a sense of purpose, being optimistic. Study after study shows that people who have created meaning in their lives are happier and more satisfied with their lives. You too can feel more upbeat about your future and your potential. And who doesn't want that? Genuine optimism is a friend magnet. It also makes your goals seem attainable and your challenges easier to overcome. Bottom line: you'll not only feel more successful, you'll be more successful. A person's level of hope is shown to correlate with how well they perform tasks. Using one's strengths in daily life, studies have found, curbs stress and increases self-esteem and vitality. Another study found that participants who were asked to imagine their future in an optimistic light increased their levels of happiness over the next six months. Believing that your goals are within reach promotes a sense of meaning and purpose in life—a key ingredient of happiness. Empathize Empathy is a powerful word packed with lots of different interpretations. It's the ability to care about others. It's the ability to imagine and understand the thoughts, behaviors or ideas of others, including those different from ourselves. If you care about the relationships in your life—and who doesn't?—learning the skill of empathy has enormous payoffs. When we empathize with people, we become less judgmental, less frustrated, angry or disappointed—and we develop patience. We also solidify the bonds with those closest to us. And when we really listen to the points of view of others, they're very likely to listen to ours. Strong relationships are essential to happiness, according to Drs. Ed Diener and Martin Seligman, and practicing empathy will go far in nurturing the relationships in your life. Richard Davidson, professor of psychology at University of Wisconsin-Madison, was one of the first to show that compassion is a skill that we can all learn. He says the brain is constantly changing in response to environmental factors, and this also extends to compassion for the self. Research by Dr. Kristin Neff, a pioneer in the field, suggests that people who have more self-compassion lead healthier, more productive lives than those who are self-critical. Revive Physical health is vital to our overall sense of well‑being. So, what does that mean? The food we eat to fuel our bodies, exercise—whether it’s taking time out to run around with the kids, take a stroll around the block, or hit the gym—and the amount and quality of the sleep we get have a huge impact on our health. Still, even though a Columbia University study has shown that both exercise and good nutrition can have a positive effect on mood and lessen the symptoms of depression, we don’t always take the time we need to look after ourselves or make the right choices. Revive is a call to action, to do something good for yourself today. And so, we can decide to get up from our chair more often and get some exercise, because doing so can help us live longer , we can resolve to plan out our meals in advance to help us make healthier eating choices (and even lose weight!), and we can choose to set a bedtime and wakeup routine that will support good sleep and help us feel energized—all of which can help us thrive. By Happify Our Opinion Why is this being discussed on the blog of a financial advice and planning website? We think that question should be flipped around - "why WOULDN'T this be part of every financial advice website?"  Humans want to feel well and do well. Why not combine feeling well with the beings we are --> "Well-Beings". Human Being + Feeling Well Well - Being What we do at Irvine Wenborn is make sure clients' live their lives to the fullest. We want to know that people are on track and more importantly, that they ' feel it' . You can have $10 million in the bank and feel poor. That might sound ridiculous to the average person, but it's true and you can find that everyone has money problems and worries. EVERY. ONE. So we include information that relates to well-being that goes beyond the numbers and the finances, because money is a means to an end. We strive to make people feel empowered by their finances, and not afraid of them. We believe that any financial adviser that doesn't consider your overall wellbeing, (your lifestyle, your values, your goals) isn't a real adviser and is not worth paying for . They might be a broker, they might be a salesperson, but they are not an adviser, and therefore, shouldn't be telling anyone what to do with their money. If you want to know how to suss out a fraud from someone that knows better, you can read more here . Real financial advice (and by 'real' we mean high quality), should help you avoid regrets and plan for the future better. It should reduce your stress and maybe the most important thing is that it should allow you to understand the potential of your life. Imagine, if you could live the life you wanted, without having to worry if you have 'enough' money, because you are so fulfilled with how your spend your time. If you knew you were going to be OK financially, would you still be doing the same things that you are right now? Would you keep your same job, same hours, same tasks? Some people would but some would not, and advisers that understand their clients can help them shift towards living in a way that feels more free.